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Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/1
Future start Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC) ::I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :::I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC) :Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC ::We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) :I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC) :Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC) ::La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC) And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC) I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC) Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC) Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC) :One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ::That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) ::Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC) :::People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC) It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC) 1st CSU Forecast Here it is! Andrew444TalkBlog 23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC) 2nd CSU Forecast It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC) Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC) A link is here. --AndrewTalk To Me 01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC) Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC) They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC) There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC) Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. AndrewTalk To Me 22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC) New Hurricane Wiki Main Page I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go: Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here. Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it. Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : I like the new homepage.Cyclone10 00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :: This new homepage is truly awesome! AndrewTalk To Me 11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::: One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC) :::::: Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC) The H Factor (Hurricane Talent Show?) Well well well... I'm back now. What about, (this is a cool idea, huh?) We could put all the hurricanes (yearly) into a little talent show that you could all possibly do, "The H Factor." ''It is a spin off of the X factor and I'm just wondering if this is a cool idea... So how it works is... #All Epac and Atlantic hurricanes are entered as a year group (e.g. All 2012 hurricanes Epac and Atl would enter as the 2012 Team.) #Pick 4 Judges from past seasons (two boy hurricanes and two girl hurricanes.) #Pick 1 Presenter from past seasons. #Judge the hurricanes on their talent (i.e. strength, longetivity, what they do, etc) #There should be one winner per basin. (Technically, I mean which was your favourite storm of the season?) #Put who you think should be judges and presenter at the bottom here. Example (this is mine, I'm Liz:) 2012 JUDGES: *Ivan (2004) 'Head Judge' *Rita (2005) *Jova (2011) *Floyd (1999) 2012 PRESENTER: Katrina (2005) Then everyone on the wiki should judge how the 2012 hurricanes would be based on what they do! What do you all think? Which hurricanes should be the judges and presenters and why? 18:06, September 17, 2012 (UTC) Maybe: Dora (1964) Carla (1961) Allen (1980) Igor (2010) Presenter: Fabian (2003) Cool idea, Liz! AndrewTalk To Me 21:22, September 17, 2012 (UTC) okie!! who will be head judge tho? And... ok, would you like fabian or katrina to be presenter of atl or epac? ok, and yep, this is the 2012 official lineup :D 22:59, September 18, 2012 (UTC) HAMMYS 2012 Ok... what about awards for the 2012 AHS and PHS season? Nominating starts now!! 2012 and 2011 storms are included and you can vote per category... *1 Epac 2011 storm *1 ATL 2011 storm *1 Epac 2012 storm *1 Atl 2012 storm. (that means you should nominate 4 storms per category!) Ok... here are the categories... *Best Male Storm *Best Female Storm *Worst Male Storm *Worst Female Storm *Weirdest Storm *Favourite "Damager" (storm that does lots of damage) *Weirdest Girl's Storm Name *Weirdest Boy's Storm Name *2012 Storm of the Year *2011 Storm of the Year 'ROUND 2 STARTS OCTOBER.' Winners will be announced in Christmas. So start nominating!! Andrew444's nommies My casts: *Kenneth, Philippe, Daniel, and Michael *Hilary, Ophelia, Miriam, and Nadine *Greg, Jose, John, and Alberto *Fernanda, Gert, Kristy, and Joyce *Irwin, Lee, Daniel, and Chris *Beatriz, Don, Bud, and Beryl *Norma, Rina, Willa, and Patty *Ramon, Sean, Bud, and Kirk *Michael + Daniel *Ophelia + Kenneth AndrewTalk To Me 12:23, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Liz's nommies here's mine (IK, I'm being funny here LOL) *'Best Male Storm''' (Kennehhtth, Phillippe, Fab-ey-oh, Ernesto. *LOL, I know! I'm random!*) *'Best Female Storm' (Jova, Irene, Carlotta, Nadine.) *'Worst Male Storm' (Greg *boring!* Jo-Zay, John, Kirk.) *'Worst Female Storm' (Fernandeeeh, Cindy, Kristy, Joyce.) *'Weirdest Storm' (Kenneth, Ophelia, Nadine, Fabio.) *'Favourite "Damager"' (storm that does lots of damage) (Joe-Vah, Irene, Isaac, Carlotta.) *'Weirdest Girl's Storm Name' (Jova, Gert, Gilma, Patty. *Sorry, but who is named Gilma or Jova?!?*) *'Weirdest Boy's Storm Name' (Eugene, Phillippe, Bud, Gordon *yes, but I can't think of anything else*) *'2012 Storm of the Year' (Isaac/Carlotta) *'2011 Storm of the Year' (Irene/Jova) P.S. Joke: I know a French hurricane that makes flip flops. Phillipe Flop. Good luck stormies!! 23:04, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Fabio's pronunciation is actually FAH-bee-o, Jova's is HO-vah, and Jose's is HO-zay (Not trying to be rude). AndrewTalk To Me 23:37, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Okay, TYVM for telling me XD LOL :D I already know fabio and jose lol. XD 18:33, September 30, 2012 (UTC) OK PPL! you can start voting for your winner now! 18:45, October 3, 2012 (UTC) Vote for Your Winner! *Best Male Storm (Kenneth/Phillippe/Daniel/Michael/Fabio/Ernie) *Best Female Storm (Hillary/Nadine/Ophelia/Miriam/Jova/Carly/Irene) *Worst Male Storm (Greg/Jose/John/Alberto/Kirk) *Worst Female Storm ('Nanda/Gertie/Kristy/Joyce/Cindy) *Weirdest Storm (Irwin/Lee/Dan/Chris/Kenny/'Phelia/Nadine/Fabio) *Favourite "Damager" (storm that does lots of damage) (Beatriz/Don/Buddeh/Beryl/Jova/Irene/Isaac/Carly) *Weirdest Girl's Storm Name (Norma/Rina/Willa/Patty/Jova/Gert/Gillma) *Weirdest Boy's Storm Name (Ramon/Sean/Bud/Kirk/Eugene/Phillippee/Gordon) *2012 Storm of the Year (Mikey/Dan/Isaac/Carly) *2011 Storm of the Year ('Phelia/Kenny/Irene/J-V) Ok!! start voting ppl plz! get everyone on the wiki to vote! (P.S. Carly is my nickname for carlotta, Buddeh for Bud, J-V for Jova (even though pronunciation is hova.) Dan for Daniel, 'Phelia for Ophelia, Mikey for Michael (THRILLER!) Ok, so people, plz put your nominations down! Thanks a lot!! (P.S. Which past storms would make great presenters and why?) :D 18:45, October 3, 2012 (UTC) My votes: *Kenneth *Nadine *John *Joyce *Nadine *Beryl *Willa *Kirk *Isaac *Irene AndrewTalk To Me 00:14, October 5, 2012 (UTC) My votes: *Michael *Nadine *Greg *Gert *Nadine *Irene *Jova *Bud *Isaac *Irene Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:50, October 5, 2012 (UTC)